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REPORT · MSFT v4· ARCHIVED
PAKUP·AI
LIVING REPORT · REPORT NO. 4
v4 · 2026-08-19
ARCHIVED VERSION

Microsoft $484.31 +0.56%

stock · data as of 2026-08-19 · computed, sourced, never predicted
00Executive summary

Microsoft closed at $484.31 (+0.56% on the day). Over the last month it is +21.76%, over the last year -5.59%. It sits 10.09% below the 52-week high of $538.66 (52-week low $352.83).

Price holds above both the 50-day and 200-day averages — the market's own trend vote is constructive on both horizons.

latest change — $481.63 → $484.31 (+0.56% since v3)5 invalidation conditions stated — section 09
01What changed — v4 vs v3
  • · $481.63 → $484.31 (+0.56% since v3)
02Technicals

Microsoft closed at $484.31 (+0.56% on the day). Over the last month it is +21.76%, over the last year -5.59%. It sits 10.09% below the 52-week high of $538.66 (52-week low $352.83).

Trend: price is ABOVE the 200-day average ($430.55) and above the 50-day ($416.57) — trend strength (R², 90d) 0.09, direction up.

Volatility: 30-day realized vol is 48.96% annualized, the 97th percentile of this asset's own history — a loud tape. Short-horizon behavior leans momentum.

Structure (90 days): range $352.83 – $506.06; the most-touched level is $391.67 (20 touches).

1W
-1.65%
1M
+21.76%
1Y
-5.59%
FROM 52W HIGH
-10.09%
03Relative performance

Relative: outperformed the S&P 500 by 16.38% over the last month (-25.93% over the year); 90-day beta 1.1, correlation 0.34.

1M VS S&P 500
+16.38%
1Y RELATIVE
-25.93%
BETA 90D
1.1
CORR 90D
0.34
04Risk

Risk: the deepest drawdown of the last year was 34.5% (2025-10-28 → 2026-06-25); price now sits 10.09% below the trailing-year peak. Worst single session: -9.99% (2026-01-29).

MAX DD 1Y
-34.5%
FROM 1Y PEAK
-10.09%
BEST DAY
+15.51%
WORST DAY
-9.99%
05Fundamentals

Fundamentals (latest annual filing, 2026-06-30): revenue $331.84B (+17.79% YoY), net income $133.75B (40.31% margin). Trailing P/E on annual diluted EPS: 26.98. Source: SEC EDGAR.

Filed record: latest 10-K covers the period ending 2026-06-30, filed 2026-07-29 (21 days ago). Next annual filing estimated around 2027-07-29 from this issuer's own cadence — an estimate, not a date.

REVENUE
$331.84B
REVENUE YOY
+17.79%
NET INCOME
$133.75B
NET MARGIN
40.31%
EPS (DILUTED)
$17.95
TRAILING P/E
26.98

latest 10-K · period 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-07-29 on EDGAR ↗ · next annual est. ~2027-07-29

06Sentiment

The tape leans constructive: 54% of the last 90 sessions closed up, direction up, short-horizon behavior momentum.

Positioning: 1.8 standard deviations above the 90-day mean, 10.09% from the all-time high of this series.

computed from price action, not from opinions or positioning surveys

07Consensus read

Price holds above both the 50-day and 200-day averages — the market's own trend vote is constructive on both horizons.

The 1-month move (+21.76%) runs against the 1-year trend (-5.59%).

Trading 10.09% below the 52-week high.

analyst-rating feeds are licensed; this section reads the market's own positioning instead

08In the air — headlines, not causes
09What would change this read
  • · The trend read flips on a daily close below the 200-day average at $430.55.
  • · The volatility read changes if realized vol leaves its current regime (now the 97th percentile).
  • · The relative read flips if the 1-month spread vs the S&P 500 (now +16.38%) changes sign.
  • · A new filing supersedes the fundamental read — the latest one is 21 days old.
  • · The fundamental read updates on the next 10-K/10-Q filing — annual figures can be three quarters stale between filings.
  • · nothing here is a prediction or advice — it is a computed description of end-of-day data
$484.31+0.56%CONSTRUCTIVE