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REPORT · GOLD v3· ARCHIVED
PAKUP·AI
LIVING REPORT · REPORT NO. 3
v3 · 2026-08-16
ARCHIVED VERSION

Gold $4,381 +0.04%

commodity · data as of 2026-08-16 · computed, sourced, never predicted
00Executive summary

Gold closed at $4,381 (+0.04% on the day). Over the last month it is +7.16%, over the last year +3.97%. It sits 22.48% below the 52-week high of $5,651 (52-week low $3,945).

Price is between its 50-day and 200-day averages — the market's short- and long-horizon votes disagree.

latest change — $4,378 → $4,381 (+0.05% since v2)2 invalidation conditions stated — section 06
01What changed — v3 vs v2
  • · $4,378 → $4,381 (+0.05% since v2)
  • · short-horizon behavior mean reverting → no clear_bias
02Technicals

Gold closed at $4,381 (+0.04% on the day). Over the last month it is +7.16%, over the last year +3.97%. It sits 22.48% below the 52-week high of $5,651 (52-week low $3,945).

Note: priced via PAXG (tokenized gold), which tracks spot closely.

Trend: price is BELOW the 200-day average ($4,559) and above the 50-day ($4,136) — trend strength (R², 90d) 0.23, direction sideways.

Volatility: 30-day realized vol is 20.01% annualized, the 56th percentile of this asset's own history — a normal tape. Short-horizon behavior leans no clear_bias.

Structure (90 days): range $3,945 – $4,585; the most-touched level is $4,029 (29 touches).

1W
+0.25%
1M
+7.16%
1Y
+3.97%
FROM 52W HIGH
-22.48%
03Sentiment

The tape leans neutral: 48% of the last 90 sessions closed up, direction sideways, short-horizon behavior no clear bias.

Positioning: 0.89 standard deviations above the 90-day mean, 22.48% from the all-time high of this series.

computed from price action, not from opinions or positioning surveys

04Consensus read

Price is between its 50-day and 200-day averages — the market's short- and long-horizon votes disagree.

The 1-month move (+7.16%) agrees with the 1-year trend (+3.97%).

Trading 22.48% below the 52-week high.

analyst-rating feeds are licensed; this section reads the market's own positioning instead

05In the air — headlines, not causes
  • · Where gold price is headed next as Fed rate hike and inflation odds change direction CNBC · 100h ago
  • · Wall Street goes full-bull on gold as rate-hike bets recede, Main Street maintains bullish majority with Fed minutes on the menu KITCO · 52h ago
  • · Gold Price Outlook: Speed Bump Seems Unlikely to Deter Dip Mentality FOREX.com · 72h ago
  • · UBS sees gold price challenging $5,000/oz in H1 2027 (GLD:NYSEARCA) Seeking Alpha · 74h ago
  • · UBS sees gold price challenging $5,000/oz in H1 2027 on lower real rates, softer USD and strong sovereign demand KITCO · 83h ago
06What would change this read
  • · The trend read flips on a daily close above the 200-day average at $4,559.
  • · The volatility read changes if realized vol leaves its current regime (now the 56th percentile).
  • · nothing here is a prediction or advice — it is a computed description of end-of-day data
$4,381+0.04%MIXED