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how the read evolved · 6 versions · 2026-08-142026-08-19
REPORT · GOLD v6
PAKUP·AI
LIVING REPORT · REPORT NO. 6
v6 · 2026-08-19
CURRENT

Gold $4,497 +3.71%

commodity · data as of 2026-08-19 · computed, sourced, never predicted
live intraday view · chart by TradingView · the document below is computed from end-of-day data
00Executive summary

Gold closed at $4,497 (+3.71% on the day). Over the last month it is +10.18%, over the last year +6.08%. It sits 20.42% below the 52-week high of $5,651 (52-week low $3,945).

Price is between its 50-day and 200-day averages — the market's short- and long-horizon votes disagree.

latest change — $4,336 → $4,497 (+3.71% since v5)2 invalidation conditions stated — section 07
01What changed — v6 vs v5
  • · $4,336 → $4,497 (+3.71% since v5)
02Technicals

Gold closed at $4,497 (+3.71% on the day). Over the last month it is +10.18%, over the last year +6.08%. It sits 20.42% below the 52-week high of $5,651 (52-week low $3,945).

Note: priced via PAXG (tokenized gold), which tracks spot closely.

Trend: price is BELOW the 200-day average ($4,549) and above the 50-day ($4,159) — trend strength (R², 90d) 0.11, direction sideways.

Volatility: 30-day realized vol is 23.14% annualized, the 67th percentile of this asset's own history — a normal tape. Short-horizon behavior leans no clear_bias.

Structure (90 days): range $3,945 – $4,585; the most-touched level is $4,029 (29 touches).

1W
+2.66%
1M
+10.18%
1Y
+6.08%
FROM 52W HIGH
-20.42%
03Risk

Risk: the deepest drawdown of the last year was 28.07% (2026-01-28 → 2026-07-16); price now sits 18.85% below the trailing-year peak. Worst single session: -10.13% (2026-01-30).

MAX DD 1Y
-28.07%
FROM 1Y PEAK
-18.85%
BEST DAY
+6.71%
WORST DAY
-10.13%
04Sentiment

The tape leans neutral: 48% of the last 90 sessions closed up, direction sideways, short-horizon behavior no clear bias.

Positioning: 1.61 standard deviations above the 90-day mean, 20.42% from the all-time high of this series.

computed from price action, not from opinions or positioning surveys

05Consensus read

Price is between its 50-day and 200-day averages — the market's short- and long-horizon votes disagree.

The 1-month move (+10.18%) agrees with the 1-year trend (+6.08%).

Trading 20.42% below the 52-week high.

analyst-rating feeds are licensed; this section reads the market's own positioning instead

06In the air — headlines, not causes
07What would change this read
  • · The trend read flips on a daily close above the 200-day average at $4,549.
  • · The volatility read changes if realized vol leaves its current regime (now the 67th percentile).
  • · nothing here is a prediction or advice — it is a computed description of end-of-day data
$4,497+3.71%MIXED