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REPORT · US2Y v1· ARCHIVED
PAKUP·AI
LIVING REPORT · REPORT NO. 1
v1 · 2026-08-12
ARCHIVED VERSION

US 2Y Treasury yield 4.2% -0.47%

rate · data as of 2026-08-12 · computed, sourced, never predicted

⚠ data-quality notice

This version was computed while a data-feed defect was live (missing observations parsed as zero — fixed 2026-08-18). Its numbers are preserved exactly as published, per the append-only contract; open the latest version for the corrected read.

00Executive summary

US 2Y Treasury yield closed at 4.2% (-0.47% on the day). Over the last month it is +0.48%, over the last year +12.6%. It sits 3.89% below the 52-week high of 4.37% (52-week low 0%).

Price holds above both the 50-day and 200-day averages — the market's own trend vote is constructive on both horizons.

latest change — first committed version2 invalidation conditions stated — section 06
01What changed — v1
  • · first committed version — nothing to diff against yet
02Technicals

US 2Y Treasury yield closed at 4.2% (-0.47% on the day). Over the last month it is +0.48%, over the last year +12.6%. It sits 3.89% below the 52-week high of 4.37% (52-week low 0%).

Trend: price is ABOVE the 200-day average (3.63%) and above the 50-day (4.02%) — trend strength (R², 90d) NaN, direction sideways.

Volatility: 30-day realized vol is NaN% annualized, the 0th percentile of this asset's own history — a quiet tape. Short-horizon behavior leans no clear_bias.

Structure (90 days): range 0% – 4.37%; the most-touched level is 4.24% (26 touches).

1W
+0.48%
1M
+0.48%
1Y
+12.6%
FROM 52W HIGH
-3.89%
03Sentiment

The tape leans neutral: 47% of the last 90 sessions closed up, direction sideways, short-horizon behavior no clear bias.

Positioning: 0.36 standard deviations above the 90-day mean, 4.55% from the all-time high of this series.

computed from price action, not from opinions or positioning surveys

04Consensus read

Price holds above both the 50-day and 200-day averages — the market's own trend vote is constructive on both horizons.

The 1-month move (+0.48%) agrees with the 1-year trend (+12.6%).

Trading within 3.89% of the 52-week high — priced near its best.

analyst-rating feeds are licensed; this section reads the market's own positioning instead

05In the air — headlines, not causes
  • · Treasury yields ease after lighter-than-expected wholesale inflation CNBC · 31h ago
  • · Market Minute: Yield curve pricing in a hawkish Fed The Real Economy Blog · 1233h ago
  • · Why Are Investors Divided Over the Path of Treasury Yields? CME Group · 1041h ago
  • · US Treasury yield curve 'twist' reflects view Fed may not hike again Reuters · 345h ago
  • · The Treasury Yield Curve Has Risen and Flattened in 2026 Penn Mutual Asset Management · 1881h ago
06What would change this read
  • · The trend read flips on a daily close below the 200-day average at 3.63%.
  • · The volatility read changes if realized vol leaves its current regime (now the 0th percentile).
  • · nothing here is a prediction or advice — it is a computed description of end-of-day data
4.2%-0.47%CONSTRUCTIVE